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October Newsletter 2026

Rates Are Back Over 7%. Reno Sellers Are Not Budging.

by Ben Florsheim | October 2026

Hi friends. Last week Erica and I took Madison to Dragon Lights at the May Arboretum, and she loved it. Thousands of glowing lantern sculptures on a cold fall night, and our girl was all in. We found a giant glowing swing near the end of the path and I could not resist grabbing a picture.

Madi and Ben on the glowing swing at Dragon Lights

Madi and me on the glowing swing at Dragon Lights.

It is hard to believe how fast this year has gone. Madi turned one in September, and now she is tiptoeing around the house like a little ballerina, as long as someone is holding her hand. Every week there is something new. Erica and I keep saying we need to slow down and enjoy it, and nights like this one are exactly what we mean.

If you have little ones, or you just need a reason to get out of the house on a chilly evening, Dragon Lights runs through November 29. Go. You will not regret it.

Now, speaking of things that lit up this month, mortgage rates did too. Just not in the fun way. Let me walk you through it, and then we will get to what is actually happening here at home.

Rates Are Back Above 7%

The 30 year fixed climbed to 7.32% the week before last, then eased a little to 7.24% as of October 29. A year ago that same rate was 6.17%. Here is what that gap looks like in real money.

The reason is inflation, plain and simple. September’s inflation report came in at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, and gas prices alone jumped 9.1% in a single month. The Fed raised rates in September to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. At the October 28 meeting they held steady, but two members voted for another hike. Before that meeting, traders were already putting the odds of a December hike at around 73%.

My take has not changed, but the direction has. All year I have told you to stop waiting on the Fed. A lot of people were waiting for rates to drop into the fives. That wait just got longer, not shorter. If you are going to buy in the next year, plan around a payment you can live with today. If rates come down later, you refinance. If they do not, you are not stuck waiting on the sidelines forever.

The National Picture Is Getting Heavier

Last month I told you sellers outnumbered buyers nationally by about 51%. That gap got wider. In September there were 1,510,784 active sellers, the most since March 2020, and only 928,892 active buyers, the lowest on record. That means there were 62.6% more sellers than buyers, the largest gap ever recorded.

Active U.S. homebuyers versus sellers chart

Active U.S. homebuyers (red) versus sellers (blue). The white line is the gap, now at a record 63%. Source: Redfin, via The Kobeissi Letter.

Builders are feeling it too. Their confidence index fell to 29 in October, the lowest since June 2012. Foot traffic from buyers dropped to its lowest level since 2012 outside of the pandemic. And here is the part that matters to anyone shopping: 43% of builders cut prices this month, the highest share since at least 2020. If you have been eyeing new construction, now is the time to ask what the builder will throw in. Rate buydowns, closing costs, upgrades. They are listening.

NAHB homebuilder sentiment chart

Homebuilder sentiment fell to 29 in October, the lowest reading since 2012. Source: NAHB / Wells Fargo, via The Kobeissi Letter.

So are prices falling nationally? Not on average. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices in the 20 biggest U.S. cities, rose 2.7% from a year ago in August and hit a new record. But that average hides a real split. The Midwest and Northeast are leading, while the West is lagging. Seattle was down 2.0%, Las Vegas down 1.3%, and Denver down 0.8%. And with inflation running hotter than home price growth, home values have actually lost ground in real terms for 15 straight months.

Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index chart

Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, at a record 346.6 in August. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, via The Kobeissi Letter.

The bigger reason buyers are disappearing shows up in how people feel about their own wallets. A record 41% of Americans now expect their finances to be worse a year from now. That is higher than during the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile the personal savings rate fell to 3.8% in September, well below where it sat before the pandemic. People are spending more than their income is growing, and they are dipping into savings to do it.

Share of Americans expecting worse finances chart

Share of Americans expecting their finances to be worse in a year. Source: University of Michigan, via The Kobeissi Letter.

U.S. personal savings rate chart

U.S. personal savings rate, down to 3.8% in September. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via The Kobeissi Letter.

Put those together and the buyer shortage makes sense. It is not that people stopped wanting homes. It is that a 7% rate on top of record prices, with less money in the bank, just does not pencil for a lot of families right now.

Now the Reno and Sparks Part

Here is October at home, single family homes, straight from our MLS, compared to October of last year.

Reno:

Sparks:

Same story as last month, only louder. Our sellers are not showing up. New listings in Reno were down 26% compared to last October. Most homeowners here locked in a mortgage at 3% or 4% a few years ago, and they have no interest in trading it for a 7% loan on their next house. So they stay put. That keeps inventory tight even while buyers pull back.

That is why Reno does not look like Seattle or Las Vegas right now. Nationally, a flood of sellers is meeting a shortage of buyers. Here, both sides are stepping back at the same time. We are now sitting under 4 months of supply in both cities, which on paper actually leans slightly in the seller’s favor. And homes in Reno sold about 25 days faster than they did a year ago.

A quick honesty check on those price numbers. The Reno median was $632,514 in September and $590,000 in October. Sparks jumped 10% on only 108 sales. When this few homes sell in a month, the median bounces around a lot. My read is that local prices are holding steady to modestly up, not booming. That is a big deal when other Western markets are going backward, but it does not mean your house gained 10% this year.

What This Means for You

If you are buying, there are fewer active buyers out there than at any point on record. Use that. With rates over 7%, a seller paid rate buydown is often worth more than a small price cut, because it lowers your payment every single month. Builders are offering these right now, and plenty of resale sellers will too if you ask the right way. The key is being pre-approved and actually out looking. You cannot negotiate from the sidelines.

If you are selling, low inventory is your edge. There is not much for buyers to choose from, and a well prepared home still moves. But remember who is on the other side. Buyers are working with a 7% rate and tighter budgets, so they are shopping by monthly payment, not by what your neighbor got in 2022. Price it right from day one and your home will get attention. Price it high and hope, and you will be chasing the market down.

Around Reno

Dragon Lights is open through November 29 at the Wilbur D. May Arboretum, and it now runs 5 to 9 p.m. nightly. The path is under a mile, but plan on 90 minutes because you will stop at everything. There is even a play area where kids can touch and sit on some of the lanterns.

Fantasies in Chocolate is Saturday, November 7, at the Grand Sierra Resort. It is exactly what it sounds like, and a great excuse for a date night. Same day, the Village at Rancharrah is hosting a Fall Harvest Market if you want something a little more low key for the morning.

And mark your calendar for Black Friday. Home for the Holidays returns to Greater Nevada Field starting November 27 for its second year. There is a 100 foot Christmas tree on the field, lights on every seat in the stadium synced to the light shows, and free hot chocolate at the gate. It runs 19 nights, up until the week before Christmas.

Let’s Talk

That is the month from where I sit. Rates went the wrong way, the country has more sellers than buyers than ever, and Reno is still holding up because our homeowners are staying put. If you want me to run real numbers on your situation, whether that is buying, selling, or just knowing what your home is worth today, I would love to help. Give me a call, send me an email, or let’s grab a coffee. No pressure. Just a real conversation.

Ben Florsheim
The Mohan Real Estate Group | Northern Nevada
ben@sellinreno.com

Sources

Local market data (Reno and Sparks single family homes, October 2026 vs. October 2025, including median sale price, average days on market, active listings, new listings, closed sales and months of supply): Northern Nevada Regional MLS via Flexmls, pulled November 2, 2026. October figures are preliminary and may shift slightly as late closings are recorded.
30 year fixed mortgage rate of 7.24% (October 29, 2026), 7.32% the prior week, and 6.17% one year earlier (October 30, 2025): Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Payment examples are principal and interest only on a $500,000, 30 year loan.
September 2026 Consumer Price Index (3.7% headline year over year, gasoline up 9.1% month over month): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via Kiplinger.
Federal Reserve October 28, 2026 decision (held at 3.75% to 4.00%, 10 to 2 vote with Cook and Hammack favoring a hike), September 2026 hike, and December hike odds: Federal Reserve; Kiplinger; RateZip. 10 year Treasury: RateZip.
Active U.S. homebuyers and sellers, September 2026: Redfin, via The Kobeissi Letter (chart).
NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, October 2026 (29, buyer traffic 18, 43% of builders cutting prices): National Association of Home Builders, via The Kobeissi Letter (chart); TheStreet.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index, August 2026 (20-City up 2.7% year over year, record 346.6, Western metro declines, 15 months of real declines): S&P Dow Jones Indices, via The Kobeissi Letter (chart).
Share of Americans expecting finances to worsen (41%): University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, via The Kobeissi Letter (chart).
Personal savings rate of 3.8%, September 2026: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, released October 29, 2026 (chart via The Kobeissi Letter). Income and spending growth comparison: The Kobeissi Letter.
Reno events: Travel Nevada (Dragon Lights Reno); Edible Reno-Tahoe events calendar (Fantasies in Chocolate, Fall Harvest Market at Rancharrah); Reno Aces / MiLB.com (Home for the Holidays).